Easy to predict the future in hindsight!
My retrograde prediction is that September 2025 marks the peak of the stock market fueled by the AI bubble.
Parallels to the dotcom
Like the dotcom bubble 25 years earlier, this bubble has been fueled by irrational exuberance connected to the invention of a disruptive technology.
Back then it had been the Internet, now highly effective Deep Neural Networks.
And like then, the major players in the supply chain got rewarded handsomely:
- network equipment manufacturers back then
- deep learning chip vendors, hyperscalers and model developers today
Like then, I predict that the leaf nodes in the supply chain (graph) will be the most negatively affected by a correction.
- the webvan.com of yesteryear
- the AI model wrappers of today
A second wave
But after a significant correction, the surplus of AI acceleration capacity will be put to productive use and will seed a new generation of successful companies.
And the masters of today’s AI supply chain won’t disappear for sure, will just have to navigate a more fragmented landscape.
We’ll see…